The two volatility regimes that define how SPX trades — and the zero gamma boundary between them
Every day, SPX is in one of two states: positive gamma (calm, mean-reverting) or negative gamma (volatile, trending). The difference comes down to one question: are dealers buying or selling the underlying when price moves?
Positive gamma (left): dealer hedging dampens moves, so price mean-reverts in a tight range. Negative gamma (right): hedging amplifies moves, so price trends and accelerates.
Positive Gamma: The Volatility Suppressor
When net dealer gamma is positive (SPX is above the Zero Gamma level), dealers are effectively long gamma. Their hedging creates a natural stabilizer:
POSITIVE GAMMA (SPX above Zero Gamma)
SPX rises → dealer delta goes long → they SELL to rebalance → selling caps rally
SPX falls → dealer delta goes short → they BUY to rebalance → buying supports dip
Result: Low realized volatility, tight ranges, mean-reversion
Typical range: 0.3-0.5% daily moves
Best strategy: Fade extremes, sell premium
~70% of trading days occur in positive gamma. This is the "normal" state where SPX grinds higher in tight ranges, VIX stays suppressed, and dip-buying works.
Negative Gamma: The Volatility Amplifier
When SPX drops below the Zero Gamma level, dealers become short gamma. Their hedging now amplifies moves instead of dampening them:
NEGATIVE GAMMA (SPX below Zero Gamma)
SPX falls → dealer delta goes more short → they must SELL more → selling accelerates drop
SPX rises → dealer delta goes more long → they must BUY more → buying amplifies rally
Result: High realized volatility, trending moves, momentum
Typical range: 1-3%+ daily moves
Best strategy: Trend-following, don't fade, buy protection
Negative gamma is where you see the "waterfall" selloffs and violent short-covering rallies. Moves that would be absorbed in positive gamma instead snowball.
The Zero Gamma Level: Regime Change Boundary
The Zero Gamma level (orange line on our dashboard) is where net dealer GEX equals zero. Think of it as a phase transition:
SPX above Zero Gamma — dealers stabilize price, vol compresses, pinning is strong