Earnings yield minus the 10-year
No reading
— bps
- Earnings yield
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- UST 10-year
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Target —[1] Now —
Against the real 10-year — TIPS — Breakeven — Typical band —
The same earnings yield, against a real bond yield this time. Not a real equity risk premium, whatever that would be. The signal ignores it, the way you ignore a phone ringing next door.
On trailing earnings — TTM EPS — Forecast growth adds —
What next year would have to earn
Nothing yet. I put the kettle on.
What would change the signal
| Leg | Measure | Needs | Or the index |
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How stretched
level, 1d & 5d move vs own history · ±2σ shaded
Shaded: each series' mean ±2σ over its daily closes since the year shown. A dot past the shading is stretched against its own history, which is not the same as wrong. Real yields are the Fed's daily TIPS series and run a day behind; the breakeven (nominal minus real 10Y) waits for both and shows the last day they share. The spread's own history only starts in 2024, so its σ has seen one kind of market. Twenty years of bonds have seen several. The 1d and 5d moves are measured the same way, against the σ of that series' own one- and five-session moves; red past ±2σ. Daily moves have fat tails, so a 2σ move turns up more often than a bell curve would suggest.
History
Spread in bps, left · S&P 500, right
How far 2027 consensus is from required EPS, $
Earnings yield and 10-year, %
Inputs, and when each last printed
| Input | Value | Symbol | Last print |
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